Day 15: 30 Day Market Challenge (With Charts and Stuff)

Results:

Started out slow, picked up, and then someone decided to crash a few items.  I still profited, but I lost out on 30m of potential profits.  It would have been fun to clear 400m today, but oh well.  I also missed out on the US TZ evenings, which is always a nice time to make some quick flips as people come home to unload and stock up.

Now for some more info on my character.

Trade Skills:

• Accounting 3
• Broker Relations 4
• Marketing 2
• Retail 4
• Trade 4

And now, Charts!  I have been tracking all of this using the wonderful program Excel.  I love Excel.  It does maths and makes charts.  My main book tracks the stats I give in results everyday, and lets me "keep score" against myself.  Two graphics I use are shown below, and to reiterate, I track:

• Ending Isk (Sell Orders + Buy Orders + Cash)
• Sell Orders
• Buy Orders
• Cash
• Liquid Isk (Cash + Buy Orders)
• PLEXline (PLEX Sell Order / 30 Days * Current Day)
• PLEX Goal (Plex Order)
• Margin

Overall Results

Daily Margin

The PLEXline is the lowest value of a PLEX that I can buy in the region I am in, plotted from $0 at day 0 and increasing each day by the PLEX value divided by 30, and multiplied by the day I am on in the month.  That means on day 15, the PLEXline is 245m isk, based on a lowest PLEX value of 490m.  This lets me see  the pace at which I need to make isk to pay for the account, and how far above or below that amount I am on any given day.

The PLEX Goal is just a horizontal gate I need to reach to give a relative idea of where I am overall.

The Margin graph shows my actual gain each day relative to my starting isk amount.

Fun fact:  The buy order and cash line are mirror images of each other.  This makes sense if you think about it for a while.  They are simply two sides of the same pool of money varying based on how much I am investing into the market.

An important note in all of this is that I track Liquid Isk separately from Ending Isk.  I do this because Sell Orders have no real value, they are only the estimate of how much I stand to gain when I complete all the Sell Orders.  Liquid Isk is what I could actually spend if I cancelled every Buy Order.  I do not include assests or the real value of Sell Orders, as the real value of those would be the highest buy rates, and that's a lot of extra typing in Excel.  I tracked the "real isk" amount for two days and stopped.  Most of my margins sit in the 25% to 50% range, so I guess a useful estimate of real isk would be (and the graph):

Buy Orders + Cash + Sell Orders * .65

The graph:

How much isk I actually have?

One last chart.  I fit a trendline to my current data, and this is what happens:

I can haz PLEX?

The PLEXline will be crossed on day 21.  Not too shabby.

Also, as a bonus, here is the EveHQ Prism Report of everything I have completed some form of transaction on.  I have no idea how accurate it is, but I wanted to add it to show that I am not doing anything exotic.

Transaction Trading Report
from Monday, April 09, 2012 to Thursday, April 26, 2012
Item	Amount Traded	Average Unit Profit	Total Profit
100MN Afterburner II	10.00	696,441.72	6,964,417.21
10MN MicroWarpdrive II	2.00	168,664.68	337,329.36
1200mm Artillery Cannon I	7.00	334,995.60	2,344,969.17
1200mm Artillery Cannon II	12.00	1,229,084.83	14,749,017.98
1200mm Heavy 'Scout' Artillery I	3.00	760,119.10	2,280,357.30
125mm Prototype Gauss Gun	6.00	136,897.88	821,387.30
1400mm Gallium Cannon	8.00	458,853.80	3,670,830.38
1400mm 'Scout' Artillery I	13.00	807,271.50	10,494,529.46
150mm Light AutoCannon I	70.00	24,171.72	1,692,020.58
150mm Light 'Scout' Autocannon I	5.00	401,670.29	2,008,351.45
1MN Afterburner II	10.00	528,613.80	5,286,138.03
200mm Compressed Coil Gun I	14.00	95,853.95	1,341,955.32
200mm Light Carbine Repeating Cannon I	20.00	198,975.35	3,979,506.96
200mm Railgun II	5.00	640,696.27	3,203,481.37
200mm 'Scout' Accelerator Cannon	10.00	153,799.95	1,537,999.53
250mm Light Artillery Cannon I	20.00	52,497.07	1,049,941.41
350mm Compressed Coil Gun I	5.00	698,689.97	3,493,449.85
425mm AutoCannon II	58.00	329,119.97	19,088,958.43
425mm Medium Gallium Machine Gun	10.00	471,987.32	4,719,873.18
650mm Artillery Cannon II	4.00	228,790.37	915,161.48
650mm Medium 'Scout' Artillery I	1.00	2,667,239.76	2,667,239.76
720mm Howitzer Artillery II	6.00	646,737.61	3,880,425.67
Adaptive Invulnerability Field II	68.00	157,413.69	10,704,130.74
Advanced 'Limos' Heavy Missile Bay I	51.00	251,540.95	12,828,588.43
Anode Electron Particle Cannon I	5.00	362,997.51	1,814,987.55
Anode Neutron Particle Cannon I	15.00	360,456.20	5,406,842.98
Arkonor Mining Crystal II	3.00	496,999.20	1,490,997.60
Basic Energized Adaptive Nano Membrane	36.00	65,316.19	2,351,382.99
Beta Reactor Control: Capacitor Power Relay I	10.00	143,621.09	1,436,210.89
Beta Reactor Control: Diagnostic System I	10.00	134,489.90	1,344,898.95
Cap Recharger I	78.00	20,190.13	1,574,829.98
Command Processor I	10.00	304,994.96	3,049,949.55
Conflagration L	10.00	332,865.95	3,328,659.50
Covert Ops Cloaking Device II	3.00	1,466,335.07	4,399,005.21
Damage Control I	6.00	452.02	2,712.12
Drone Synaptic Relay Wiring	171	2.1	359.1
Dual 180mm AutoCannon I	23.00	109,948.96	2,528,825.99
Dual 250mm Prototype Gauss Gun	20.00	55,231.23	1,104,624.67
Dual 650mm Repeating Artillery II	8.00	1,038,092.90	8,304,743.23
Dual Heavy Modulated Pulse Energy Beam I	10.00	324,178.02	3,241,780.23
Dual Light Pulse Laser II	25.00	234,712.98	5,867,824.46
Dual Modulated Pulse Energy Beam I	13.00	443,497.86	5,765,472.21
Electron Blaster Cannon II	3.00	988,993.19	2,966,979.56
Expanded Probe Launcher II	3.00	1,875,631.86	5,626,895.57
Experimental 100MN Afterburner I	50.00	51,279.43	2,563,971.37
Experimental 10MN MicroWarpdrive I	150.00	71,752.98	10,762,947.68
Experimental 1MN Afterburner I	157.00	33,494.67	5,258,663.82
F-90 Positional Sensor Subroutines	1	-0.01	-0.01
Fleeting Propulsion Inhibitor I	4.00	1,599,994.47	6,399,977.86
Heat Sink I	50.00	18,319.04	915,952.14
Heavy Modulated Energy Beam I	10.00	223,806.74	2,238,067.43
Heavy Unstable Power Fluctuator I	15.00	186,308.13	2,794,621.93
Ion Blaster Cannon II	9.00	538,250.56	4,844,255.05
Kernite Mining Crystal II	7.00	190,701.46	1,334,910.21
Kinetic Deflection Amplifier II	5.00	189,998.69	949,993.44
Large Armor Repairer I	60.00	260,078.24	15,604,694.11
Large Automated Carapace Restoration	20	-1.01	-20.2
Large Energy Transfer Array II	9.00	963,890.86	8,675,017.74
Large Remote Armor Repair System II	5.00	458,622.08	2,293,110.40
Large Shield Booster II	6.00	255,266.13	1,531,596.75
Light Electron Blaster I	100.00	10,919.84	1,091,983.89
Light Electron Blaster II	2.00	526,061.25	1,052,122.50
Light Neutron Blaster I	288.00	24,411.14	7,030,407.57
Mark I Generator Refitting: Diagnostic System	100.00	13,322.19	1,332,219.34
Medium Anode Pulse Particle Stream I	10.00	76,479.45	764,794.50
Medium Inefficient Armor Repair Unit	19.00	17,678.86	335,898.30
Medium Modulated Pulse Energy Beam I	4.00	819,009.95	3,276,039.80
Medium Nanobot Accelerator I	5.00	875,687.91	4,378,439.54
Medium Pulse Laser II	33.00	358,652.64	11,835,537.14
Medium Remote Armor Repair System II	5.00	547,998.41	2,739,992.07
Medium Semiconductor Memory Cell I	1.00	2,147,877.19	2,147,877.19
Micro Auxiliary Power Core I	10.00	88,996.35	889,963.50
Micro Auxiliary Power Core II	5.00	1,867,970.90	9,339,854.51
Mining Laser Upgrade II	18.00	737,279.38	13,271,028.88
Mobile Medium Warp Disruptor I	3.00	1,279,051.74	3,837,155.21
Modal Electron Particle Accelerator I	3.00	2,120,966.12	6,362,898.37
Modulated Strip Miner II	20.00	1,596,866.37	31,937,327.35
Phased Weapon Navigation Array Generation Extron	12.00	1,287,903.89	15,454,846.69
Prototype 'Arbalest' Heavy Assault Missile Launcher I	2.00	565,279.21	1,130,558.41
Prototype Cloaking Device I	1.00	209,993.82	209,993.82
Prototype Sensor Booster	50.00	86,737.80	4,336,889.79
Scorch M	2.00	194,843.99	389,687.98
Scorch S	4.00	186,791.91	747,167.64
Shield Boost Amplifier I	10.00	169,872.73	1,698,727.27
Shield Boost Amplifier II	9.00	111,651.74	1,004,865.64
Shield Power Relay I	100.00	20,028.50	2,002,849.58
Shield Power Relay II	10.00	158,981.66	1,589,816.64
Shield Recharger II	36.00	63,734.36	2,294,437.07
Small Auxiliary Thrusters I	10.00	67,691.84	676,918.40
Small Cargohold Optimization I	2.00	349,998.97	699,997.94
Small Energy Neutralizer II	5.00	636,564.96	3,182,824.79
Small Shield Booster II	4.00	175,395.40	701,581.58
Tachyon Beam Laser II	4.00	1,114,158.30	4,456,633.20
Tachyon Modulated Energy Beam I	45.00	260,934.48	11,742,051.62
Thermic Dissipation Field II	26.00	258,636.17	6,724,540.40
Upgraded 1MN Microwarpdrive I	5.00	41,323.18	206,615.92
Warp Core Stabilizer II	35.00	384,619.21	13,461,672.34
Warp Scrambler II	2.00	299,888.33	599,776.65
X-Large C5-L Emergency Shield Overload I	10.00	753,397.99	7,533,979.93
X-Large Shield Booster II	15	581,089.96	8,716,349.34